Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Henry Cejudo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Henry Cejudo has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Aljamain Sterling has a 18cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Aljamain SterlingW2 streak
oldest →L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Aug 23W
vs Calvin Kattar · Apr 24L
vs Movsar Evloev · Dec 24W
vs Brian Ortega · Aug 25W
DECvs Youssef Zalal · Apr 26 Henry CejudoL3 streak
oldest →W
KOvs Marlon Moraes · Jun 19W
KOvs Dominick Cruz · May 20L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 24L
vs Payton Talbott · Dec 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Aljamain SterlingMetricHenry Cejudo
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+2.11Δ 2.12 — meaningful gap-0.01
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Aljamain SterlingHenry Cejudo
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Aljamain Sterling(10 fights)Henry Cejudo(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +52.2|Blue -52.2
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -896.0|Blue +896.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Aljamain SterlingTargetHenry Cejudo
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
3
Aljamain Sterling rounds
Round 1Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns2
Control1:37
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:47Control
Round 2Henry Cejudo edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:00
31Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
Round 3Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns1
Control1:30
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:43Control
Round 4Aljamain Sterling edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns1
Control0:38
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:46Control
Round 5Henry Cejudo edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:15
27Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:48Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
