Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Nate Diaz threatens submissions; Marcus Davis has lost 50% of fights by sub.
- Marcus Davis has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Nate Diaz has a 15cm reach advantage.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Nate Diaz
oldest →L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19L
vs Leon Edwards · Jun 21W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22 Marcus Davis
oldest →W
KOvs Jonathan Goulet · May 10L
KOvs Jeremy Stephens · Jan 11 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Nate DiazMetricMarcus Davis
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.80evenly matched on net striking-0.07
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Nate DiazMarcus Davis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Nate Diaz(10 fights)Marcus Davis(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +145.4|Blue -145.4
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +42.0|Blue -42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Nate DiazTargetMarcus Davis
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Nate Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:24
Knockdowns0
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
1Knockdowns
Round 2Nate Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes29
Takedowns0
Control0:50
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:06Control
Round 3Nate Diaz edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns1
Control1:10
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
