Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Michael Johnson · Nov 16W
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18W
SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20 Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Khabib NurmagomedovMetricDustin Poirier
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+2.35Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap+0.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Khabib NurmagomedovDustin Poirier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red +189.0|Blue -189.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Khabib NurmagomedovTargetDustin Poirier
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
3
Khabib Nurmagomedov rounds
Round 1Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns3
Control3:39
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns3
Control3:41
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Khabib Nurmagomedov edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control1:31
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
