Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rick Story has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Gunnar Nelson
oldest →L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 19L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25 Rick Story
oldest →W
vs Brian Ebersole · Nov 13L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14W
SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14W
vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Gunnar NelsonMetricRick Story
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-1.29Δ 2.92 — meaningful gap+1.63
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Gunnar NelsonRick Story
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +6.0|Blue -6.0
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -3.0|Blue +3.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Gunnar NelsonTargetRick Story
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Rick Story edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns1
Control0:16
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Rick Story edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns0
Control0:00
29Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:04Control
Round 3Rick Story edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:05
32Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Rick Story edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:01
Knockdowns0
41Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:32Control
1Knockdowns
Round 5Rick Story edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
48Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.
