Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Sam Alvey enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Rogerio Nogueira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Sam Alvey has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Sam AlveyL5 streak
oldest →L
SUBvs Julian Marquez · Apr 21L
vs Wellington Turman · Aug 21L
SUBvs Brendan Allen · Feb 22L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 22 Rogerio NogueiraL3 streak
oldest →L
vs Mauricio Rua · Aug 15W
KOvs Patrick Cummins · May 16L
KOvs Ryan Bader · Nov 16L
KOvs Ryan Spann · May 19L
vs Mauricio Rua · Jul 20 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Sam AlveyMetricRogerio Nogueira
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)-0.35evenly matched on net striking+0.09
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Sam AlveyRogerio Nogueira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Sam Alvey(10 fights)Rogerio Nogueira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +43.8|Blue -43.8
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -559.0|Blue +559.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Sam AlveyTargetRogerio Nogueira
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Sam Alvey edged it
Sig. strikes26
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Rogerio Nogueira edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
